By: Primax
The Summer 2025 Spending Report, a special edition of the Primax Payments Pulse, explores year-over-year, same-store financial institution comparisons and provides a view of consumer transactions and trends from April through June 2025.
The report also features a Deep Dive into the economic uncertainty contributing to the current consumer sentiment. Tariff-sensitive goods, like furniture, toys and clothing, posted higher prices in June, while the Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 5.4 points to 93.0, with sentiment on both current and future conditions contributing to the broad decline. Despite the ever-shifting economic landscape, consumers have adjusted their spending habits, demonstrating both caution and adaptability.
Key Takeaways
Key takeaways from the Primax Payments Pulse: Summer 2025 Spending Report include:
- The quarter ending in June brought continued slow growth for credit and stable growth for debit, with debit purchases up 5%. The Goods and Money sectors (P2P payments) contributed two-thirds of that growth. Credit purchases were up 1.6% with the Services and Goods sectors contributing all of the increase. The Services sector growth was fueled by insurance premiums and rent payments. During this time period, debit transactions were up 3.1% and credit transactions were up 1.9%.
- The 12-month CPI through June increased by 2.7%, up 0.3% from May. The shelter index continues to contribute significantly to the monthly increase, up 0.2% in June, while the energy index increased by 0.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% at 2.9% for June.
- There were signs of shifting consumer spending influenced by economic uncertainty in the market, with discretionary spending impacted in the following specific Travel and Entertainment categories. At the same time, online gambling continues to grow in debit transactions and purchases.
- Airlines: Year-over-year debit growth for Airline purchases has steadily rebounded since a year-to-date low in February of -8.7%, but still remains negative overall. The gap between debit purchase amounts for discount and non-discount airlines has narrowed and is likely why discount airlines like Spirit, Frontier, JetBlue and Ryanair have had low transaction rates over the past 18 months. When the price difference is not significant enough to justify the service disparity, consumers are opting for full-service airlines instead.
- Wholesale Clubs: There was a surge in year-over-year debit growth for Wholesale Club transactions and purchases during March and April 2025 — likely reflecting a preemptive attempt by consumers to stock up on goods with inflationary concerns and tariff announcements. Costco had the highest transactions per amount and average purchase amount throughout 2025 so far. Customers visited Costco more often and spent more while in store than other wholesale club competitors.
- Online Resellers: Gen X represents the largest contribution for Online Resellers like Depop, Poshmark and Mercari in terms of debit transactions (24.6%) and purchases (24.7%), although overall growth for Gen Xers has been declining throughout 2025. Boomers+ experienced a significant decline and represent the lowest transaction share (11.5%) of any generation. Gen Z has seen growth above 5% since February 2025. This likely reflects a growing willingness by younger consumers to shop second-hand to save money in the uncertain economy.
- Streaming Services: While debit transaction growth for audio and video Streaming Services remained positive, it has consistently slowed since March 2025. Streaming services have a challenge of retaining and attracting new customers in a world with higher prices and amidst economic uncertainty.
Looking Ahead
Despite some evidence of shifting consumer behavior in certain discretionary spending categories, widespread or extreme changes in spending have not yet been observed. Instead, U.S. consumers are making small, individualized budget adjustments. Primax will continue to watch for changes in spending as the year unfolds.
President Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act, with numerous provisions, into law on July 4. Benefits to consumers will take time to materialize and will likely mainly be seen with the filing of 2025 income taxes. There could be a ripple effect on consumer spending activity with adjustments coming to Medicare, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the Affordable Care Act.
The news cycle continues to be dominated by tariffs and their shifting dates and percentages. Consumer spending implications due to the proposed trade tariffs will be better understood once dates, percentages and products are finalized, as many key trade deals have an effective date of Aug. 1, 2025. Interest rates remained unchanged after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. The odds of a rate cut following the Sept. 17 meeting are increasing, especially as two of the Fed governors voted against consensus and supported a rate cut this month. Primax will continue to monitor these implications over time.
We hope that our financial institutions are able to leverage insights from this and future special reports of the Primax Payments Pulse to help make informed and strategic decisions to best serve their customers.